Profile
Xiaohua's extraordinary technological journey In my first year of law school in the United States, my grades were average, with only a B average. In the second year, for some unknown reason, I got enlightened. The following averages are A. I found a trick: condense the focus of a semester's courses on a single sheet of paper at the end of the term. If you can do it, you have it all. So the last one I read on the island, I tried to run through what I've learned over the past 4 years in a single story in the same way. Of course this is just my understanding; the real world is ever-changing, and it is impossible to describe it all in one model. But at least this framework helps me analyze trends, so I share it with you. The protagonist of this story is a common character in Taiwanese textbooks: Xiao Hua. Personal value Xiaohua is neither particularly rich nor particularly poor. Not particularly smart, nor stupid. If he didn't play funny and take risks in his life, then his achievements would probably fall on the average of the same generation in Taiwan. This result is actually not bad; looking at the world, Xiaohua is in the first class. However, being in it, Xiaohua will naturally not be satisfied with just being "average", but will long for more. For Xiaohua to stand out, the key is not to compete with others, but to compete with computers - to avoid being replaced by computers. If the work he is good at is automated or standardized , he has not mastered scarcity . His relative reward will slowly decrease. Technology is a strange thing: it enriches society as a whole , but puts most of the profits in the hands of the few who own it. How can Xiaohua not be replaced? He must have some kind of special knowledge , that is, knowledge that is not yet standardized. And if Xiaohua wants to go beyond his own power, he must not only do "handicraft" or "selling time" services, he must also master some kind of leverage . (However, craftsmanship and time-selling services have beauty and self-realization, and are equally worthy of respect) Leverage is something that can turn a pound of effort into a pound of effect. Leverage includes money, people, organizations, machines, and things that can be replicated over and over again , such as software. Developers write a set of software, and the server will execute it 24 hours a day, which is a powerful lever. Writing articles is also leverage — readers like the article and will help copy and share it. Today Xiaohua decided to start a business because he can play multiple levers at the same time, including people (employees), money (fundraising), and organizations (enterprises). And because Xiaohua lives in the stories he reads on the island of science and technology, he can only choose to start a business in science and technology, that is, to use computers. But what business does Xiaohua want to start? Domain - Hardware The topic selection basically depends on what Xiaohua likes and what he knows. There are many frontiers in the tech industry that can be dizzying. Roughly divided into hardware and software. In the realm of hardware, quantum computers are a new form of computer that can handle operations that traditional computers can't touch. Battery technology continues to improve and costs are reduced, driving new energy supply chains. The launch cost of space has been greatly reduced , making space a new blue ocean. Cloud services have accelerated computer penetration and made collaboration essential to work. Wearable devices "Internet of Things" for human beings. 5G and 6G bring computers closer together. Virtual reality creates a more immersive escape space, as well as a more natural way of virtual interaction. Augmented reality "lays" a layer of data on the physical world, blurring the boundaries between virtual and physical worlds. Blockchain aggregates and distributes computer resources in new ways, creating a shared database. Domain - Software On the software side, big data is a new way to find problems. Artificial intelligence is a new way to answer questions. Cryptocurrencies can be used as a medium of exchange. Decentralized Finance replaces centralized buying and selling with software matching. A smart contract is an irreversible program that must be executed as long as the conditions are met. Fictional universes are the next phase of the consumer web. However, since it is a cutting-edge field, Xiaohua may not be able to participate. Many also have no industry in Taiwan. The most likely topic for Xiaohua to start a business is to use software to improve known problems. Software is a tool for deploying resources. Developers can change the code, and the software can change the whereabouts of information, attention, or goods. And " software eats the world " means that everything is slowly subsumed under a system dispatched by software. This consists of three steps. First, the software "covers" the resource, making the resource legible , or digitized. Second, after resources are digitized, software can be used to compose , programmable , and trade . When digital resources are more abundant, software is needed for pricing and matching . In the end, the most valuable companies are those that master the mobility of digital resources . Mobile phones, for example, allow people to swipe their phones while squatting on the toilet — and the attention of people squatting on the toilet becomes recognizable. This attention is collected by media sites, priced and traded by the adtech industry . The winners for controlling the most attention are Facebook and Google. Software devours the world, and it also drives the business model of software to drive the world. There are two main business models for software: commission and subscription . The former is because the effectiveness of software is easy to quantify. The latter is because software is usually an immediate, long-term service . Before software, the most efficient tool for allocating resources was money. Investors write checks, and the funds set aside change the allocation of raw materials, assets, or technology. Now money and software are gradually converging—also known as FinTech — because money is information, and information is money. Financial practitioners learn to use software to capture information. Software companies use information to capture more money. Value Chain Xiaohua developed it seriously and sold the first product. At this point he will discover the limits of the value chain . All companies are in a value chain, constrained by upstream suppliers, surrounding complements and downstream customers. If the value chain is stable, Xiaohua's company cannot make particularly high profits. Because when he raises the price, the customer will choose to buy from the competitor. If he tries to keep costs down, either the supplier will change to serve other companies, or Xiaohua will have to sacrifice his own profits, resulting in a lack of funds for reinvestment. Xiaohua's most promising strategy is to cut into the value chain that is still unstable, such as the frontier industries mentioned above. Or change the existing value chain. For example, an existing product may be too powerful and expensive to exceed the needs of the average user (eg Office 365). At this time, Xiaohua can take advantage of the opportunities brought by technology and focus on serving the more basic needs of users (such as Quip). If the new technology continues to advance, Xiaohua has the opportunity to take advantage of the situation to erode the high-end market, also known as disruptive innovation. Xiaohua may also unbundle existing products and break through at a single point. For example, Slack is only a communication platform for enterprises . Or bundle products to create new options, such as Microsoft bundling Azure with Office. Xiaohua can also integrate different links in the value chain to provide special products . For example, iPhone integrates operating system and hardware, and Facebook integrates content generation and delivery. In fact, most important companies split, bundle and integrate different links of the value chain at the same time. moat When Xiaohua takes a firm footing, competition will intensify. Other new startups have come to pay tribute , and big companies will also come back to defend . Xiaohua has to build a moat . There are static moats, such as patents, licenses, control of rare resources, etc. There are also dynamics, such as economies of scale—the bigger the scale, the higher the bar for others to catch up. In the Internet industry, network effects are an important moat. The more people use a service, the more valuable it is, so leading web services have a big advantage. A more complex dynamic moat is a positive self-enforcing loop across the value chain , also known as a “flywheel”. For example, the more customers on Amazon, the more sellers; and vice versa. And when the volume of transactions increases, Amazon has more money to spend on development. The most powerful companies tend to develop ecosystems that include themselves, customers, suppliers, and third-party developers. The more characters are involved in the ecosystem, the harder it is for any character to escape. One day, Xiaohua's business may become a monopoly - complete control of one part of the value chain. At this point, it will slowly absorb the profits of the entire value chain, pulling other roles around it like a black hole. Suppliers are reduced to commodities and caught in a red sea of price competition. Customers have no choice. Duopoly is common in the tech industry : monopolies in different markets are pinning each other, like two snakes pinching each other's joints. nation Whether the state will interfere with the monopoly is still inconclusive. Some monopolies are the pride of the state and are instead supported by the government, such as Samsung in South Korea or TSMC in Taiwan. Some people think that the huge profits of monopoly will attract more people to innovate, which is beneficial to society. There is also a saying that technology is changing rapidly , and it is too early to set the tone for the monopoly of technology giants. Beyond commercial considerations, however, the state must intervene in the monopoly . An enterprise is a construct of the external environment such as the state, regulations, and social customs, and cannot exist without the state. In other words, the country is the platform, and the enterprise is the app on the platform. When the app is too large, it threatens the power of the platform. And when companies are large enough to pose systemic risks , manipulate the political process , or hinder government action, state-corporate conflict arises. The most fundamental problem is unclear rights and responsibilities. A (democratic) state is accountable to its people, while corporations are accountable to shareholders. When the enterprise oversteps the state and the boss controls the board of directors, the people's rights and interests may be violated, but no one is responsible. At this time, the state may intervene by various means, such as judicial investigation, breaking up companies, subsidizing competitors , or forcing the CEO to resign himself . The long-term solution is to develop a dedicated supervisory unit, just like the NCC in charge of the telecommunications industry, linking the responsibility system of the enterprise and the state. Some countries are more aggressive in grabbing dominance, for example by incorporating companies into government , or directly adopting new technologies, such as central bank digital currencies . Staff At the same time, tech companies are also constrained by their employees. Technology companies are engaged in the knowledge economy, and the most important asset is talent . The demand for scientific and technological talents is high and the flow is easy. The selection team often pays more attention to the fit of the concept, not just the monetary reward. Therefore, technology companies must pay special attention to the spiritual satisfaction of employees. If employees are not satisfied with the company's approach, as long as a group of people change jobs together, they can quickly raise money and work on new topics. And companies that lose talent, even if they can maintain it for a while, will lose their innovation and go downhill day by day. If tech companies are viewed as a totalitarian organization, employees are the emerging technocratic class with considerable checks and balances. attention Finally back to Xiaohua. Xiaohua is the CEO of the company and a member of the society. His actions depend on his thoughts, and his thoughts depend on the information he absorbs. However, technology has shattered the traditional media ecology, and also destroyed the political culture built on the traditional media ecology. Not yet stable. On the Internet, everyone is a reader, a critic and the media. Under the clamor of all beings, the media loses consensus , and the society loses its centripetal force. How people allocate their attention, or what media they choose, not only affects their physical and mental health, but also shapes the social structure. Xiaohua will watch two kinds of media: the media that " kills time" and the media that " saves time" . The most potential time-killing media are games . Young people spend more time in games than Xiaohua spends on TV and movies. Games are not only narrative and interactive, but also social spaces . In the future, the game will have lower latency and more intuitive interaction. Many-to-many interaction can be achieved by voice , and the sense of social interaction will be stronger. Many games have economic activity , are more self-contained virtual worlds, and are a precursor to the development of the consumer Internet. The time-saving media has to solve the problem of information overload . Human evolution has not kept pace with the increase in information. The Internet has infinitely expanded the sources of information, but instead Xiaohua became anxious and frustrated because he was unable to process the information, which eventually turned into a sense of powerlessness and indifference. Xiaohua may seek peace from ancient methods such as meditation and mindfulness. Or often remind yourself to stay away from the screen and "read more books". The technological solution is to develop new tools to help manage attention. Facebook and Google are established examples: one filters out the pages with the most links, and one filters out the information that friends like. The next big media platform must not only deal with information overload, but also balance people's mental health. When Xiaohua first embarked on the journey, he longed for the power of technology, but did not really understand it. After years of hard work, he successfully got on the "rocket" of science and technology, and tasted the taste of success and infinite influence. But at the same time, I found that the technology I created deprived some people of judgment, replaced some people's work, made people's achievements more "virtual", and made people's interactions with people more superficial. He wasn't sure if being immersed in technology had made him forget what it meant to be human. So Xiaohua thought to himself, "It's time to take a break."
Forum Role: Participant
Topics Started: 0
Replies Created: 0